:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 384 km/s at
11/2055Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 11/1539Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.7 nT at 10/2122Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Feb, 13
Feb, 14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 105
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10