:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/1755Z from Region 1670 (N17W42). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
12/0512Z. Total IMF reached 6.7 nT at 11/2153Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.7 nT at 12/2012Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 102
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05