:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0430Z from Region 1670 (N17W69). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on day one (15 Feb) and very low with a
slight chance for C-class flares on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
409 km/s at 14/0940Z. Total IMF reached 10.6 nT at 13/2141Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.8 nT at 13/2141Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 100
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/10