:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb)
and very low on day three (18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft reached 393 km/s at 15/0135Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak flux of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 100
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10