:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three
(17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 16/1325Z. Total IMF reached 12.6 nT at 16/1257Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10.1 nT at 16/1532Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days (17 and 18
Feb). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three
(19 Feb) due to possible CME effects.

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 103
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25