:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1550Z from Region 1675 (N12E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
403 km/s at 16/2302Z. Total IMF reached 9.5 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 17/1417Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 106
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/008-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/15