:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0241Z from Region 1675 (N13E04). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb) with a
chance for an M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
17/2215Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 18/1639Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.8 nT at 18/2014Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (19 Feb, 20
Feb, 21 Feb) with a chance for active levels and a slight chance for
minor storm levels on days 2 - 3 (20 - 21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 105
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  007/008-011/012-012/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/15/40