:Product: 0220RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Feb 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 20/1111Z from Region 1678 (N11W54). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 20/2043Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/0203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at approximately 20/0836Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (22 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb). III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb Class M 45/45/45 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Feb 114 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 115 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/008-007/008-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/25