:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
23/1609Z from Region 1678 (N08W93). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 23/1450Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1449Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1449Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 100
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 100/095/100
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  007/008-005/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10