:Product: 0225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 369 km/s at
25/1527Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1320Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1548Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 364 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 095
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  004/005-004/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10