:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb,
28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
25/2104Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0913Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Feb, 28 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 099
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  004/005-006/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20