:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and three (07 Mar, 09
Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at
05/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7904 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    20/10/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 114
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 115/112/118
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  006/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    30/30/10