:Product: 0307RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Mar 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1644Z from Region 1686 (S12W84). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (08 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 07/1415Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4400 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Mar, 10 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (09 Mar). III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar Class M 10/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Mar 114 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 112/118/120 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 115 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 006/008-006/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/20 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/25 Major-severe storm 25/10/25