:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
09/1730Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 707 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 116
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10