:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/1107Z from Region 1690 (N24W08). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 342 km/s at
12/1439Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0853Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (14 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 123
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  006/005-007/008-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/45
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/65