:Product: 0315RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Mar 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0658Z from Region 1692 (N09W03). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 517 km/s at 15/0500Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/0719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0619Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar). III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 15/15/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Mar 123 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 116 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/015-028/037-014/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 20/35/10 Major-severe storm 05/20/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/15 Minor Storm 15/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/70/40