:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/0117Z from Region 1698 (S19W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (20 Mar, 21
Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained around 500 km/s. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 19/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 561 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Mar, 22
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    20/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 110
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  008/008-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/35/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/20