:Product: 0321RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Mar 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 21/1822Z from Region 1692 (N09W85). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (22 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 574 km/s at 21/0122Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1851 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (24 Mar). III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar Class M 10/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Mar 106 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 116 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 007/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 20/20/05