:Product: 0330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Mar,
01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 623 km/s at 29/2117Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0325Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0151Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1535
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    10/10/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 108
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  007/008-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10