:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (02 Apr) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (03 - 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 506 km/s at
31/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3308 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one (02 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day two and three (03 - 04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 119
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  004/005-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/25