:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (03 - 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
01/2154Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1634Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr,
04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 122
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  009/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25