:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1142Z from Region 1718 (N22E33). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr,
09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
06/1415Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0305Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0517Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1473 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Apr,
08 Apr, 09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 137
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 138/138/135
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  007/008-006/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/25