:Product: 0414RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Apr 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Apr) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (16 Apr) and expected to be low on day three (17 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at 14/0443Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 14/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0524Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 13/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 30/15/05 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 117 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 112 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/05