:Product: 0416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1646Z from Region 1719 (N09W64). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
16/0041Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2247Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2121Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 113
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  005/005-004/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10