:Product: 0419RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Apr 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1444Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (20 Apr, 21 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (22 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 325 km/s at 19/1948Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 19/1145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr). III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Apr 099 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/005-004/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10