:Product: 0424RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Apr 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/2325Z from Region 1726 (N13W49). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 24/1927Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 24/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 24/0927Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr). III. Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Apr 115 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 111 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 016/018-011/012-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 35/25/10