:Product: 0426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
26/0627Z from Region 1726 (N13W93). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (27 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 622 km/s at 26/1426Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0341Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 26/0233Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 843
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Apr), and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr)  with a slight chance for active
conditions decreasing over the next three days. Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    40/25/25
Class X    15/05/05
Proton     15/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 122
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 113/119/122
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  014/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  008/008-005/005-003/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10