:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1756Z from Region 1739 (N12E44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May,
08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
451 km/s at 05/1734Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1644Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1144Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 990 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May)
and quiet levels on day three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 137
Predicted   06 May-08 May 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        05 May 116

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  007/008-008/008-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10