:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0022Z from Region 1738 (N15W08). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May,
11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 07/2134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2103Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0421Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 674 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11
May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 127
Predicted   09 May-11 May 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        08 May 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10