:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/0523Z from Region 1736 (S08W78). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (10 May) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (11 May,
12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at
09/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    35/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 128
Predicted   10 May-12 May 125/115/115
90 Day Mean        09 May 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  005/005-005/005-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20