:Product: 0526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/0957Z from Region 1756 (S20W13). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May,
29 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 849 km/s at 25/2207Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2258Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0615Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 25/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 11636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May)
and quiet levels on day three (29 May).

III.  Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 120
Predicted   27 May-29 May 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        26 May 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  025/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/10