:Product: 0530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/2236Z from Region 1760 (N12E51). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May,
01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 468 km/s at
29/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 35365 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 104
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        30 May 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  005/005-011/018-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/40/40