:Product: 0604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jun,
06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
689 km/s at 04/0313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 31835 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (06 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 110
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/005-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/40