:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0857Z from Region 1762 (S30W60). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
571 km/s at 04/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 30461 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 109
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  005/005-006/005-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/45
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/65