:Product: 0609RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jun 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/0208Z from old Region 1762 (S28, L=129). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 09/0727Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1450Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3829 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun). III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jun 096 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 122 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/008-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15