:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1424Z from Region 1765 (N09W50). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (11 Jun, 12 Jun) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 10/1553Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/0342Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0310Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1479 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 093
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 095/100/105
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15