:Product: 0611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun,
13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 11/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1638Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1125Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 943 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 090
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15