:Product: 0612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun,
14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 477 km/s at
12/0430Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2110Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 554 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 093
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 095/100/105
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15