:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0400Z from Region 1774 (S18E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at
15/2057Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/0626Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 885 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 111
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  005/005-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/20