:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
19/0954Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun,
22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 332 km/s at
19/0818Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1950Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 123
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  008/010-014/018-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/55/40