:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
21/0314Z from Region 1777 (S15E56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun,
24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
580 km/s at 21/1945Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/1707Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1944Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
21/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 133
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  013/015-010/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15