:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jun) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (27 Jun) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 25/0812Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/2147Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
24/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and unsettled to
active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    20/15/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 109
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 105/100/095
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  006/008-011/016-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/30
Minor Storm           01/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/50/40