:Product: 0629RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jun 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1609Z from Region 1781 (N22W17). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 492 km/s at 29/1735Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 29/1122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 28/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak flux of 695 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jul). III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jun 100 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 105/110/105 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 032/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 020/025-011/012-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/05 Minor Storm 15/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/15 Major-severe storm 40/40/05