:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/0708Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul,
06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
02/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4867 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 125
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  007/008-016/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/25
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/40