:Product: 0704RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jul 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0008Z from Region 1785 (S12E36). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at 04/1948Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6615 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul). III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jul 138 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 122 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 016/020-012/015-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/15 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/20