:Product: 0709RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jul 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 08/2219Z from Region 1785 (S09W16). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 424 km/s at 09/2031Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 09/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 308 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul). III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 120 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 121 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 012/015-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/30/10