:Product: 0710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0640Z from Region 1787 (S12W24). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (11 Jul,
12 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 490 km/s at 10/1950Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 09/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/0043Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1829
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (12 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jul).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    55/55/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 118
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  009/012-007/008-009/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/25