:Product: 0711RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jul 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1757Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (14 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 494 km/s at 11/1322Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1256Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3338 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul) due to an expected CME passage. III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul Class M 30/25/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jul 113 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 121 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 020/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 009/008-010/015-018/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/35 Minor Storm 05/15/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/65