:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1819Z from Region 1800 (S09W18). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
24/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1905 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (26 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 108
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 121

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  005/005-009/012-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/40
Minor Storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/35/55