:Product: 0726RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jul 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 25/2244Z from Region 1800 (S08W46). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 623 km/s at 26/0823Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/0225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jul). III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jul 110 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/012-008/008-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 35/20/10